The nation was in for a surprise towards the end of November when Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an assumably likely yet unanticipated announcement (in the context of its abruptness) of the withdrawal of the three “controversial” farm laws. The Modi government had maintained all along that the laws were introduced for the welfare of the Indian farmers and for reforming India’s agriculture at large.
However, a so-called farmers’ movement, although majorly restricted to the states of Punjab, Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh, kept India on the edge for several months before eventually making sure that the Centre’s agrarian reform initiative never saw the light of day.
As expected, the government has been at the receiving end of a lot of backlash from progressives and nationalists who feel let down by the belief that an anarchist agitation ultimately managed to overpower the Centre’s long term vision of revamping India’s agricultural landscape.
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Another theory vociferously doing the rounds, and again expectedly so, is that the decision to repeal the farm laws was a political move on part of the government to embolden its electoral chances in Punjab which goes to polls early next year along with five other states in a mega election season.
With the former chief minister of Punjab Captain Amarinder Singh quitting the Congress following the incessant snubbing he received for months at the hands of the Gandhis-led party leadership in New Delhi and having had enough of the biggest thorn in his flesh Navjot Singh Sidhu’s cheap self-servicing political tactics - Punjab politics has witnessed ripples galore coinciding with the farmers’ agitation. Captain’s exit is destined to create a vacuum among Congress’s traditional voter base in Punjab. This leaves the BJP with a solid advantage to capitalise on the situation and better its performance in the upcoming assembly polls in Punjab as Amarinder Singh’s new party, the Punjab Look Congress, has announced an alliance with the BJP going into the election.
The jury is still out on whether the impending high-stakes Punjab and UP elections forced the Modi government to relent and accept the demands of the anti-establishment agitators led by the likes of Rakesh Tikait of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU). Parallels are being drawn between the farmers’ protests and the Shaheen Bagh centred anti-CAA agitation that became a national spectacle in early 2020. Since the Shaheen Bagh campaign did not culminate into the government’s yielding to a conglomerate of anarchists holding the country to ransom in the name of secularism, the argument being extended is that it was because the Shaheen Bagh protests did not possibly have any election-related ramifications unlike the farmers’ movement. Hence, the Centre had no choice but to climbdown over the farm laws to safeguard its larger political interest.
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Be that as it may, the one big consequence from a short term perspective having arisen from the withdrawal of the farm laws is that it has instilled a renewed sense of confidence within the anti-establishment lobby. This is evidenced by the fact that the PM’s announcement of scrapping the three laws was shortly followed by a new set of veiled threats and demands by the protesting groups, including a demand connected to a completely unlinked subject like the privatisation of banks.
From a long term standpoint, whether giving in to the blackmail of the compulsive agitators boomerangs on the Modi government and emboldens the spirits of anarchic forces in India remains to be seen. The agitating farmers may have wound up their camps and returned to their homes for now but it will be interesting to find out if the Centre’s back-pedalling on the farm laws is interpreted as a sign of weakness, thereby serving as a perfect launchpad for future anarchist movements.
The fact of the matter is that the possibility of this being a temporary lull before yet another storm cannot be ruled out.
BJP’s Mission Punjab
With regard to Punjab, now that the three farm laws have become history and the focus has begun to shift predominantly towards the forthcoming assembly polls in the state, all eyes will be on the BJP’s performance in the election. The party will hope to achieve electorally more than it bargained for.
Besides Captain Amarinder Singh’s new political outfit siding with the BJP before the Punjab polls, speculation is rife that Sukhdev Singh Singh Dhindsa who floated his own party Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt) after quitting the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) will also team up with the BJP. Clearly, this should work as an advantage for the BJP in the run-up to the nearing state election.
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| image source : economictimes.indiatimes.com |
At the very least, the high-octane battle for the Punjab assembly has now become four-cornered with the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)-SAD alliance and the BJP-Punjab Lok Congress alliance pitted against one another.
The Punjab legislative assembly has 117 seats. When it shared an alliance with the Akali Dal in its erstwhile arrangement, the BJP used to fight for just 23 odd seats. The picture has well and truly changed now as the BJP is all set to contest nearly 70 seats. This renewed sense of confidence to widen its playing area is an indicator that the BJP, unlike in the past, now wants to take the lead in its new alliance in Punjab which has traditionally never been a bastion of the party.
The BJP had been fighting a wave of extreme disgruntlement among a majority of the masses in Punjab due to the three reformist farm laws it had introduced. Only time will decide whether the Modi government’s decision to repeal the laws will help in paving the way for the BJP’s electoral success in Punjab. But one thing is certain that the atmosphere in Punjab under the new circumstances is a lot more congenial for the BJP to carry out its election-related political activities compared to when the farmers’ agitation was at its peak not very long ago.
